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Aluminum stocks remain high, while aluminum prices continue to struggle. Both domestic and global aluminum inventories are at elevated levels, with spot prices showing little sign of recovery. As of December 21, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a 5.3% increase in aluminum stockpiles, reaching 5.32 million tons—setting a new record for the exchange.
With weak demand and rising supply, some major financial institutions have turned bearish on the metal. Barclays has advised investors to sell aluminum contracts, while Morgan Stanley has labeled aluminum as one of the worst-performing commodities, ranking it at the bottom among the 21 tracked by the firm. Analysts predict that inventory levels will keep rising over the next four quarters, potentially hitting 8.67 million tons by the end of 2013.
China, a major aluminum producer, is expected to see continued production growth, exacerbating the supply glut. Domestic inventories are also at historically high levels. The Shanghai Futures Exchange currently holds around 440,000 tons of aluminum, up over 100% from the start of the year. In November, stocks hit a two-year high of 460,000 tons. Meanwhile, the price of aluminum futures has dropped nearly 10% since the beginning of the year, remaining weak throughout 2012.
Social stocks—those held outside official exchanges—are also at over 1 million tons, with industry officials estimating that China may hold between 1.2 and 1.5 million tons of aluminum. This oversupply is putting immense pressure on prices, especially as demand remains sluggish.
Domestic production continues to rise, with China’s primary aluminum output reaching 1.664 million tons in November alone—a 20.8% increase compared to the previous year. From January to November, total output was 17.96 million tons, up 12.1% year-on-year. Despite this, downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to significant losses for many aluminum producers.
To address the surplus, the State Reserve Bureau initiated an aluminum storage program, collecting 160,000 tons across eight provinces. However, given the scale of existing stocks, this effort appears insufficient to ease the market imbalance.
Looking ahead, analysts expect even greater oversupply pressures in 2013, particularly in western China, where low electricity costs have fueled production expansion. With capacity set to exceed 30 million tons in 2013, the aluminum market faces a challenging outlook. Prices are likely to remain weak in the medium term, testing the resilience of companies in key producing regions.