Analysis of Welded Pipe Market and Industrial Development Pattern in China

First, the development status of China's steel pipe industry After nearly 10 years of rapid development of China's steel pipe industry, in 2010 steel pipe production has accounted for more than 50% of the world's steel pipe production, of which, seamless steel pipe production accounted for more than 60% of the world's total seamless pipe production, Welded steel pipe production accounts for more than 45% of the total output of welded pipe in the world. China has become a truly world-renowned steel pipe producer. In terms of output, variety, quality, equipment and equipment, and production technology, it has reached the world's advanced level.

1. Output and production capacity During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the production of steel pipes turned into rapid growth following the rapid growth of the “Tenth Five-Year Plan”. In 2010, the output of steel pipes reached 57.65 million tons, an increase of 29.84 million tons over 2005, an increase of 107.30%, and an average annual increase of 15.69%. Among them, 25.28 million tons of seamless steel pipe production, an increase of 13.57 million tons; welded steel pipe production 32.37 million tons, an increase of 16.27 million tons, an increase of 115.93% and 101.02% respectively, "Eleventh Five-Year" average annual increase of 16.64% and 14.99%.

According to research and statistics, seamless steel tube manufacturing enterprises have about 334 sets of rolling tube units (including those under construction or proposed), with a production capacity of nearly 30 million tons, of which 30 sets of advanced continuous rolling mill units have been completed and put into production. ), The production capacity exceeds 15 million tons; Welded steel pipe manufacturing enterprises have more than 3,000 sets of various types of welded pipe units with a production capacity of over 40 million tons.

2. Imports and exports of steel in 2010 were 6,504,400 tons of steel, an increase of 13.97% over the same period of last year. Among them, the seamless steel pipe exports were 3.8364 million tons, an increase of 19.96%; welded steel pipe exports 2.69 million tons, an increase of 6.46%. From the perspective of average export prices, there has been a decline in 2010, and there has been a state of rising or falling prices. The average price of seamless steel tubes for export was US$1,217/ton, which was US$137/ton lower than the same period of last year, a decrease of 10.14%; both welded steel pipes were exported. The price of 906 US dollars / ton, down 227 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 20.12%.

In 2010, 472,600 tons of steel pipes were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 24.32%. Among them, the import of seamless steel tubes was 251,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.01%; the imports of welded steel tubes were 221,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.63%. The import volume in 2010 decreased by 611,400 tons compared with 2005, a decrease of 56%. The import volume decreased from 3.9% of steel pipe production in 2005 to 0.82% in 2010.

II. Overview of China's welded pipe market in 2010 1. Production of China's welded pipe in 2010 In 2010, the output of welded steel pipe was 32.37 million tons, of which 17.41 million tons were produced in North China, accounting for 53.8% of the total output; 1.67 million tons were produced in Northeast China, accounting for the total output. 5.13%; 2.17 million tons in Northwest China, accounting for 6.70% of the total output; 7.13 million tons in East China, accounting for 22.03% of total production; 2.44 million tons in Central South, accounting for 7.54% of total production; 1.56 million tons in Southwest China, accounting for the total 4.82% of production.

2. Demand of China's Welded Pipe Market in 2010 In 2010, the demand in the international market gradually picked up. The export volume of China's welded pipe increased by 6.3%; the total apparent consumption of welded pipe nationwide was 29.9 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.90% of the apparent consumption of the whole year of 2009. The export volume still has a large gap compared to that before the crisis, but it has recovered from the situation in 2009; while the import volume has shown a downward trend, which has dropped by 19.4% year-on-year, but compared with 2008, the decline rate has exceeded 50%. .

III. Development of major downstream consumer industries 1. The oil and natural gas industry produced 94.48 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2010, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) was 9.34 million tons, an increase of 75%; for the first time, the imported pipeline gas was 4.4 billion cubic meters. Unconventional natural gas development has made positive progress. The utilization of CBM has reached 3.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 42.3%.

In 2010, China's oil demand rebounded strongly and grew rapidly. The annual apparent consumption of oil was 455 million tons, and the growth of oil consumption regained double digits, an increase of 11.4% over 2009. The apparent consumption of crude oil exceeded 400 million tons for the first time, reaching 439 million tons, an increase of 50 million tons from 2009, an increase of 13.1%. The domestic crude oil output exceeded 200 million tons for the first time, an increase of more than 5% year-on-year, the largest increase in 15 years. The annual net oil import jumped by 16.2% to a record 254 million tons, and the dependence on oil imports was about 60%, of which net imports of crude oil were 23,600 tons, accounting for 91% of the total net oil imports in 2009. It rose to 93%.

2. The construction industry completed a total output value of 952.06 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 24% year-on-year; the building construction area of ​​construction industry reached 7.01 billion square meters, an increase of 19% year-on-year; the total investment in construction projects was 5226.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%; The total investment for the start-up project is 1,908.05 billion yuan, an increase of 2.56 billion yuan over the same period last year. There are 5.8 million sets of affordable housing nationwide with an investment of approximately 500 billion yuan, accounting for 11% of the total real estate investment. The sales area of ​​commercial housing was 1.043 billion square meters, an increase of 10.1% over 2009.

3. Machinery Industry In 2010, the total industrial output value of our country's machinery industry reached 14.38 trillion yuan, and the industrial sales value was 14.06 trillion yuan, both hitting a record high, which was a year-on-year increase of 33.93% and 34.26%, respectively. Some of the product output has reached a new level. Among them, the cumulative production of large and medium-sized tractors more than 380,000 units; cumulative production of 130 million kilowatts of power generation equipment, second only to the level of 139 million kilowatts in 2008, the output has exceeded five billion kilowatts for five consecutive years; annual output of CNC machine tools was 229,900 units, year-on-year 66.71% increase.

4. The Automotive Industry In 2010, China's auto production and sales both exceeded 18 million, reaching 18.26 million and 18.06 million, respectively, an increase of 32.44% and 32.37% year-on-year, ranking first in global production and sales. The enterprises above designated size in the national automotive industry completed a total industrial output value of 4.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.25%. In 2010, 17 key enterprises (groups) completed a total industrial output value of 1.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.50%; 17 key enterprise groups completed an operating revenue of 2.10 trillion yuan, an increase of 37.87% year-on-year; 17 key enterprise groups completed a total of 3 , 28.5 billion yuan, an increase of 50.75%.

5. Electricity Industry Overview In 2010, the country’s entire society used 4192.3 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 11.09% year-on-year. The electricity consumption of the primary industry, secondary industry, and urban and rural residents increased by 5.44%, 10.91%, 12.25%, and 12.65% respectively. The national power generation amounted to 414.1 billion kWh, of which thermal power was 332.35 billion kWh, an increase of 11.7%; hydropower was 662.2 billion kWh, an increase of 18.4%; nuclear power was 73.4 billion kWh, an increase of 70.3%; wind power was 43 billion kWh, an increase of 73.4 %. According to CEC data, the nation's investment in electricity construction in 2010 was 705.1 billion yuan, of which, the investment in power grid construction was 341 billion yuan, accounting for 48.4%, down 1% year-on-year.

Fourth, the future supply and demand analysis of welded pipe products and future opportunities to judge 1. Future Supply Forecast From the perspective of steel pipe discharge capacity, the production capacity of steel pipes increased from 26.14 million tons to 58.85 million tons in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, and the average annual production increase was 6.54 million tons, an average annual increase of 17.18%. In 2015, China's steel pipe production will reach 101.55 million tons. It is expected that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, welded steel pipe enterprises will have more than 3,000 sets of various welded steel pipe units with a production capacity of over 60 million tons. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's advanced continuous pipe mill will reach more than 30 sets, and its production capacity will account for more than 15 million tons.

2. Market Future Trends and Investment Opportunities In 2010, the volatility of the domestic welded pipe market continued to fluctuate and oscillate continuously. The tepid domestic demand and unfavorable exports made the market difficult to perform gratifyingly. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the market will continue to advance under the assistance of policies. Combined with the continuous improvement of the external environment, the impact of the global economic crisis will gradually subside, and the welded pipe market will show a more rational development trend. The overall situation of the welded pipe market in 2011 may be better than that of 2010, but there are not many favorable factors for welded pipes. The main factors that are expected to affect the pipe market in 2011 are:

1) The price of imported ore reaches the level before the financial crisis, and the expected increase in raw material prices In the first half of 2011, the growth rate of investment in the domestic iron ore mining and selection industry was more than 20%, while the growth rate of steel investment was about 7%. At the same time, overseas iron ore after the financial crisis Stone investment is also rapidly recovering, and it is expected that the production capacity of these mines will be released in concentration from 2013 to 2014. According to the current trend of steel and ore growth, the inflection point of iron ore supply and demand will emerge at this time. However, due to the existence of many risks in the operation of the global economy, the growth of the Chinese economy may also slow down, and the emergence of this turning point is entirely possible.

2) The production capacity is still relatively large, and the most unfavorable factor that restricts the price increase on the upstream of the welded pipe market is the rapid expansion of output. In 2009, the growth rate of welded pipe production in China reached the highest value in the past six years. By the end of 2010, domestic large-scale welded pipe production companies were interested in further expanding the market, and the distribution of production lines was expanding and accelerating. In the first half of 2011, the country’s welded pipe production was cumulatively produced. 180.024 million tons, an increase of 25.4% year-on-year, in the case of such a huge base of production capacity of the welded pipe, the expected output of the welded pipe in 2011 may rise further, and the pressure on the market can not be ignored. It is expected that in the middle and late period of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, as the effect of planning, the gradual implementation of policies, and the strict implementation of the elimination of outdated production capacity, the production of welded pipes will slow down and the market price will adjust accordingly.

3) Future demand uncertainty affecting market trends Relative to the welded pipe market, infrastructure projects have less demand for ordinary welded pipes. From the situation of the steel market in 2009 and 10, it can be seen that rebar is the most benefited type in Daxing's infrastructure construction, and the strong rebar will also have a significant driving effect on the steel market as a whole. However, in 2011, the situation in the real estate industry, which is closely related to the demand for ordinary welded pipes, ie, water and gas pipeline welded pipes, is relatively subtle. In 2010, the country has issued targeted policy restraining measures to regulate this industry, and whether the future policy will be further strengthened. Whether it will show a negative trend will directly affect the demand for welded pipes.

In general, from the second half of 2009 to the beginning of 2010, the domestic welded pipe market experienced a long period of low-level fluctuations, the risk has been fully released, and then in mid-2010, the price of welded pipes oscillated upward. In 2011, the prices of welded pipes generally operated around this level. More likely. However, due to pressures from exports, domestic demand, supply, and policy guidelines, the upward resistance of the market is still very large. Under strong support of the next track, the high level of shocks in the welded pipe market will intensify in 2011, but overall The market will be significantly higher than the trend in 2010.

In the medium and long term, in the next 3-5 years, the rapid global economic growth will cease. The global economy will maintain a medium-low-speed growth trend. Emerging markets and developing countries, especially China, will have a further position in the world economy. The increase in the contribution to world economic growth continues to increase. At the same time, according to the prediction of the World Steel Association, the steel consumption of major steel-consuming countries will still have room to increase within the next two years. The growth of China's steel consumption will gradually increase from 12% in 2009 and 9% in 2010. Slowly, it will maintain a growth rate of 5% of consumption. This predicts that the consumption level of welded pipes will tend to be stable in the next two years or so, and there will be room for price increase. However, with the slowdown in the overall level of China's economy and the concentration of overseas mine production capacity, Release, the price of welded pipe will gradually return to rationality.