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The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the official economic performance data for China in 2013 today, including key indicators such as GDP and urban and rural household income. Analysts predict that the target of achieving over 7.5% GDP growth this year has already been secured, with estimates pointing toward a final figure of approximately 7.7%.
**GDP Growth in 2013 Expected to Reach 7.7%**
China's economic growth slowed in the first two quarters of 2013, with GDP expanding by 7.7% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q2. However, thanks to the new government’s proactive policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting reforms, the economy rebounded in the third quarter, recording a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council’s Development Research Center, told Zhongxin.com, “It is now clear that the 7.5% growth target for 2013 will be met, and the actual GDP growth is expected to reach around 7.7%.â€
Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China, noted that recent economic indicators—such as industrial output, credit expansion, consumer spending, and exports—suggest an overall improvement in the fourth quarter of 2013. However, due to a high base from 2012, the annual growth rate may see a slight decline. He estimated that the full-year GDP growth for 2013 would still reach about 7.7%, remaining consistent with the previous year.
Recent data also showed that China’s manufacturing PMI stood at 51.0% in December 2013, marking the 15th consecutive month above the 50% threshold, signaling continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. In addition, total RMB loans increased by 8.89 trillion yuan in 2013, up 687.9 billion yuan from the same period in 2012. The total value of imports and exports reached 4.16 trillion U.S. dollars, a 7.6% year-on-year increase, which was 1.4 percentage points higher than in 2012.
According to the "China's Macroeconomic Operation Report (2013-2014)" released by the Institute of Finance and Economics, Chinese economic activity hit a bottom in 2013, with an expected annual GDP growth of 7.7%. The report also highlighted that future economic stability is expected to improve, with potential for a slight upward trend, but effective macroeconomic regulation will still be necessary to balance growth, structural adjustments, and reform efforts.
**GDP Growth in 2014 Expected to Be Slightly Better Than 2013**
The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that 2014 should focus on steady progress, reform, and innovation, aiming to maintain reasonable GDP growth while promoting structural adjustment and improving development quality and efficiency.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, believes that with improved external demand, sustained reform dividends, and moderate macroeconomic stimulus, China’s economy will continue to grow at a medium-to-high pace in 2014. He expects the GDP growth rate to be slightly better than in 2013, likely hovering around 7.8% within a reasonable range of 7.5% to 8%.
He also pointed out that global economic recovery is gradually taking shape, with exports expected to contribute more to growth in 2014. Urbanization efforts, along with investment in manufacturing and services, are expected to drive stable growth. Meanwhile, policy measures like promoting information consumption will gain momentum, boosting domestic consumption. However, stricter environmental regulations, such as vehicle purchase restrictions in many cities, may dampen auto sales.
Lian estimates that total retail sales of consumer goods in 2014 will rise by about 13.6%, slightly higher than in 2013.
Several institutions have also forecasted 2014 GDP growth, with most expecting it to remain above 7.5%. The Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Center for Prediction Science predicts a growth rate of 7.6%, while the National Information Center forecasts around 7.5%. Some analysts suggest that the official growth target for 2014 could be set at 7% to reflect a more cautious outlook.