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The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the annual performance of China's economy for 2013 today, unveiling key indicators such as GDP and income levels for urban and rural residents. Experts anticipate that the target of achieving over 7.5% GDP growth this year has already been secured, with expectations pointing toward a final figure of approximately 7.7%.
**GDP Growth in 2013 Expected to Reach 7.7%**
In 2013, China’s economic growth slowed in the first two quarters, with GDP expanding by 7.7% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q2. However, following the implementation of a series of government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting reforms, the economy rebounded in the third quarter, recording a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council's Development Research Center, stated in an interview with Zhongxin.com: “It is now clear that the 7.5% growth target for 2013 is a given, and the actual GDP growth is expected to reach around 7.7%.â€
Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China, noted that while recent indicators like industrial output, credit expansion, consumption, and exports suggest continued improvement in the fourth quarter, the high base from 2012 may lead to a slight decline. He estimates that 2013’s overall GDP growth will be about 7.7%, similar to the previous year.
Recent data also shows that China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained above the 50-point threshold for the 15th consecutive month in December 2013, reaching 51.0%. Additionally, total RMB loans increased by 8.89 trillion yuan in 2013, up by 687.9 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2012. The total value of imports and exports reached 4.16 trillion U.S. dollars, marking a 7.6% year-on-year increase.
According to the “China’s Macroeconomic Operation Report (2013-2014)†released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Finance and Economics, China’s economy hit a bottom in 2013, with an expected annual GDP growth of 7.7%. The report also suggests that future economic stability will improve, with potential for a slight upward trend, but effective macroeconomic regulation will remain crucial to maintaining a balance between growth, structural adjustment, and reform.
**GDP Growth in 2014 Expected to Be Slightly Better Than 2013**
At the recent Central Economic Work Conference, it was emphasized that 2014’s economic strategy should focus on steady progress, innovation, and reform, aiming to maintain reasonable GDP growth while promoting structural upgrades and improving development quality.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, believes that with improved external demand, sustained reform benefits, and moderate policy support, China’s economy is likely to continue growing at a medium-to-high pace. He expects 2014’s GDP growth to be slightly better than 2013, with a projected rate of around 7.8%, staying within a stable range of 7.5% to 8%.
He further notes that global economic recovery is expected to gradually gain momentum in 2014, leading to stronger export contributions. Urbanization efforts, along with improvements in manufacturing investment and ongoing reforms, are expected to support stable growth. Investment growth is likely to remain similar to the previous year.
Meanwhile, policies promoting information consumption are expected to take effect in 2014, alongside continued efforts to boost consumer spending. However, stricter regulations on air pollution and car purchase restrictions in many cities may dampen auto consumption. Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by about 13.6% in 2014, slightly higher than in 2013.
Several institutions have also forecasted 2014 GDP growth. The Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Center for Prediction Science predicts a growth rate of 7.6%, while the National Information Center expects it to remain around 7.5%. Some analysts recommend setting the 2014 growth target at 7% to ensure sustainable development.