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In the month of June, China’s total import and export value was 2.04 trillion yuan, a drop of 0.3%. Among them, exports were 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3%; imports were 863.3 billion yuan, down 2.3%; trade surplus was 311.2 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8%.
“In the first quarter, both import and export values ​​declined. In the second quarter, the value of imports and exports and export value showed positive growth, and the decline in import value has narrowed. It can be said that the overall situation has stabilized.†Huang Junping, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs Said. Overall, the world economic recovery is weak, global trade continues to shrink, and China's import and export of goods still faces a relatively low international environment. In the first quarter, imports, exports, exports and imports fell by 6.9%, 5.7% and 8.4% respectively. In the second quarter, imports, exports and exports increased by 0.1% and 1.2% respectively, showing positive growth; imports fell by 1.2%, and the decline was 7.2 percentage points lower than the first quarter.
The foreign trade structure was optimized in the first half of the year. From the perspective of foreign trade, the import and export of general trade was 6.28 trillion yuan, down 1.2%, accounting for 56.4% of China's total import and export value during the same period, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the same period last year. From the perspective of foreign trade entities, the proportion of private enterprises' exports continued to be the first, and imports continued their growth in the fourth quarter of last year. From the perspective of trade products, mechanical and electrical products and traditional labor-intensive products are still the main exporters. From the perspective of import structure, the import volume of bulk commodities such as iron ore, crude oil and copper continued to grow, and the prices of major imported commodities continued to be low, but the decline was narrower than that in the first quarter.
Bai Ming, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, told the Economic Information Daily that the import and export trade in the first half of the year was like a jagged, ups and downs. According to the statistics of the renminbi, exports fell by 2.1% in the first half of the year, and imports fell by 4.7%. However, from June, there seems to be a easing, with exports up 1.3% and imports falling to 2.3%. There are certainly countries that have promoted various policies and the transformation and upgrading of enterprises for the stabilization of foreign trade, but they also need to look at the factors such as base, exchange rate, commodity prices, and performance of surrounding markets.
In his view, foreign trade in the first half of the year depends on "dual state", that is, "inner new normal" and "external new dynamics". From the perspective of the internal environment, the Chinese economy is turning to the new normal, and foreign trade needs to optimize its structure and innovation drive. From the perspective of the external environment, we must pay more attention to the new dynamics of international division of labor, new dynamics of exchange rate fluctuations, new developments in international relations, new developments in economic geography, new developments in global governance, new developments in trade rules, new developments in the science and technology revolution, and new developments in development concepts. New developments.
It is worth noting that the export leading index fell for two consecutive months. "In January, February and March of this year, China's export leading index was 31.7, 31.3 and 31.6, respectively, showing low fluctuations. In the second quarter, April, May and June were 33.8, 33.1 and 32.7 respectively, first rising from the previous month. And then fell for two consecutive months, indicating that China's exports in the third quarter are facing greater downward pressure. We analyze that the international and domestic economic situation is still severe and complicated in the future, and there are still many uncertain factors affecting China's foreign trade development," Huang said.
Huang Yuping pointed out that the first is that the world economy continues to grow at a low rate, and the lack of demand in the international market is the main dilemma facing the current import and export of enterprises. Secondly, the domestic economy is generally operating smoothly, but the downward pressure is constantly increasing, which inhibits imports. In addition, the high cost of enterprises has caused great pressure on the development of foreign trade of enterprises, and some industries and orders have shifted outward.
"Although the foreign trade situation is still severe and complicated this year, the downward pressure is still relatively large, but the positive factors that promote the development of foreign trade are also being released. The measures to stabilize the growth of foreign trade are gradually being implemented. At the same time, foreign trade enterprises are also improving labor productivity and reducing In the second half of this year, in the second half of this year, with the joint efforts of all parties, China's import and export of goods is expected to continue to develop along the trend of stabilization. Huang said.
The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center reported that the economic recovery in the US and Europe is slow, and the external demand environment has not improved. The export will maintain a small negative growth in the second half of the year, and the annual export growth will be around -2%. The export growth rate of major economies and neighboring countries in Asia is slowing down. China's export growth rate is higher than the global level, and its share of global exports continues to rise.
Bai Ming said that in the second half of the year, some increments can be calculated based on factors such as exchange rate and base, but from the perspective of commodity prices and trade costs, it is not excluded that there is a certain degree of reduction. In short, the most important thing for foreign trade to stabilize is to rely on transformation and upgrading. It is necessary to rely on building a new advantage in foreign trade. It is necessary to rely on the improvement of the industrial base on the supply side and the filling of gaps on the demand side.
Related reading: In the second quarter, foreign trade has stabilized and rebounded. Policy support is still needed in the second half of the year.
Foreign trade, like the general trend of the economy, has shown signs of stabilization and recovery.
According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 11.13 trillion yuan, down 3.3% over the same period last year. However, in quarterly terms, the trend of rising quarter by season is obvious. Import and export, export and import values ​​were negative growth in the first quarter. Import and export values ​​in the second quarter showed positive growth, and the decline in import value narrowed year-on-year.
Overall, it has shown a steady momentum
In the first half of the year, China’s import, export, export and import values ​​fell year-on-year. Among them, in the first quarter, the value of imports, exports, exports and imports fell by 6.9%, 5.7% and 8.4% respectively. In the second quarter, the value of imports, exports and exports increased by 0.1% and 1.2% respectively, showing positive growth; the value of imports fell by 1.2%, and the decline was 7.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter.
In response, Huang Qiping, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs, said at the press conference of the State Council Office on the 13th that since the beginning of this year, the world economic recovery has been weak and global trade has continued to shrink. China's import and export of goods still faces a relatively low international environment. In the first quarter, both import and export values ​​declined. In the second quarter, the value of imports and exports and export value showed positive growth, and the decline in import value has narrowed. It can be said that the overall trend has stabilized.
Regarding the reasons for the rebound of China's foreign trade in the second quarter, Huang Yuping was attributed to the continuous optimization of the policy environment in the domestic foreign trade sector. Multilateral and bilateral economic and trade cooperation continued to expand. The decline in commodity prices was narrowed year-on-year, and recent global trade showed signs of recovery.
"In recent years, the State Council and relevant competent authorities have successively issued a number of policy documents closely related to the development of foreign trade. These policies and measures have been gradually implemented. At the same time, this year the country pays more attention to the innovation and development of foreign trade, encourages business model innovation, and continuously promotes trade facilitation. To implement a more active import policy, etc. It seems that these have created a good policy environment for China's foreign trade and effectively promoted the development of foreign trade," he said.
According to Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, the foreign trade data in the first half of the year can be said to be better than expected. In particular, exports increased by 1.3% year-on-year in June this year, which is a real increase, as exports in June last year were also positive. He believes that the rebound in the second quarter was mainly due to the sustained release of the policy dividend, the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, and the development of the free trade zone strategy.
According to Huang Qiping, the foreign trade in the first half of the year has some new features: the proportion of general trade import and export has increased, and the export of some countries along the “Belt and Road†has increased, and the terms of trade prices have improved.
Huang Yuping said: "In the first half of the year, China's export prices fell by 3.2% overall. From this calculation, China's trade price condition index for the first half of this year was 105.2, which means that China's export of a certain number of goods can be exchanged for 5.2% of imported goods, indicating China's trade. The price conditions continue to improve."
Second half or zigzag trend
"In January, February and March of this year, China's export leading index was 31.7, 31.3 and 31.6, respectively, showing low fluctuations. In the second quarter, April, May and June were 33.8, 33.1 and 32.7 respectively, first rising from the previous month. And then another two months of decline, indicating that China's exports in the third quarter once again face greater downward pressure." Huang Yiping said when analyzing the export leading index.
This is also in line with the current environment and trends in foreign trade. Huang Yuping said that there are still many uncertain factors affecting China's foreign trade development, including the weak global demand situation, the world economy continues to grow at a low rate; the domestic economy is generally stable, but the downward pressure is increasing; the cost of enterprises remains high. Some industries and orders are transferred outward.
Bai Ming judged that the favorable factors of foreign trade in the second half of the year also have non-optimistic factors, basically maintaining the zigzag trend of fluctuations in the first half of the year, and the fluctuation range is expected to narrow. However, the narrowing of this volatility is still stabilizing at the bottom, and there is not much room for further decline.
How can the policy resolve the unfavorable factors in the second half of the year Bai Ming believes that the main reason is to further consolidate the industrial base of exports by supplementing the shortcomings and adjusting the structure, and more to cultivate superior products. "High-end we already have high-speed rail, nuclear power, etc.; in the low-end industry, such as labor-intensive textile shoes and hats and other industries, we can upgrade to high-end through industrial upgrading, and cultivate fist products and main military enterprises. At the same time, explore In addition to the traditional advantages, some new growth points are being cultivated. For example, new energy vehicles are becoming a new growth point, and such new growth points can be tapped in many fields."
Bai Ming said that in the first half of the year, the state has introduced a number of measures to stabilize foreign trade, and local governments need to continue to actively implement them, including the network of customs and inspections. In addition, in the second half of the year, more real money and silver policies should be put forward, such as increasing export tax rebates and expanding the pilot of the free trade zone.
Looking forward to the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year, experts believe that with the joint efforts of all parties, China's import and export of goods is expected to continue to develop along the trend of stabilization.
Recommended reading: the trade surplus in the third quarter is expected to maintain a high level of foreign trade short-term growth pressure
The foreign trade import and export situation issued by the General Administration of Customs on July 13 shows that in the first half of this year, the total value of China's import and export of goods and trade was 11.13 trillion yuan, down 3.3% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 6.4 trillion yuan, down 2.1%; imports were 4.73 trillion yuan, down 4.7%; trade surplus was 1.67 trillion yuan, up 5.9%. In June, China’s total import and export value was 2.04 trillion yuan, down 0.3%. Among them, exports were 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3%; imports were 863.3 billion yuan, down 2.3%; trade surplus was 311.2 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8%.
According to institutional sources, the complex global trade environment has brought significant pressure on China's foreign trade, and the short-term growth rate of foreign trade is under pressure. However, under the background of global value chain restructuring, China's foreign trade transformation and upgrading is worthy of attention. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the improvement in demand in emerging markets, the negative impact of the RMB exchange rate on exports, and the role of foreign direct investment will help exports continue to improve. The trade surplus in the third quarter will remain at a high level due to seasonal factors.
Foreign trade short-term growth rate pressure
The macro analysis team of China Merchants Securities believes that the export growth in June was 4.8% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of RMB was 1.3%, which was basically in line with expectations. The strength of the US dollar in June and the weakening of the RMB caused the export growth rate in RMB to be significantly better than that in US dollars. meter. In June, the year-on-year growth rate of imports was -8.4%, which was worse than the market expectation and the previous value of -0.4%. The RMB value increased by -2.3% year-on-year, which was in line with the decline in the PMI import sub-item. However, the import scale in June was the same as that in May. The sharp decline in the year-on-year has a base factor disturbance. Relatively stable domestic demand still has a certain supporting effect on the scale of imports.
The General Administration of Customs pointed out that in the first half of this year, the main features of China's foreign trade import and export were as follows: First, imports and exports rebounded in the second quarter, exports achieved positive growth, and import declines narrowed. In the first half of the year, China's import and export, export and import values ​​still declined year-on-year, but from the quarterly situation, it has stabilized. Among them, in the first quarter, China's import, export, export and import values ​​fell by 6.9%, 5.7% and 8.4% respectively. In the second quarter, the value of imports, exports and exports increased by 0.1% and 1.2% respectively, showing positive growth; the value of imports fell by 1.2%, and the decline was 7.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter.
Second, the proportion of import and export of general trade has increased. The third is the export growth of some countries along the Belt and Road. Fourth, the proportion of exports of private enterprises continued to be the first. Fifth, mechanical and electrical products and traditional labor-intensive products are still the main exporters. Sixth, the import volume of bulk commodities such as iron ore, crude oil and copper continued to grow. The prices of major imported commodities continued to be low, but the decline was narrower than that in the first quarter, indicating that China's trade price conditions continued to improve. Seventh, China's foreign trade export leading index fell.
Gai Xinzhe of the Institute of International Finance of the Bank of China said that the global trade environment is still grim. In June, China's PMI new export order index fell below the glory line, and the Customs export export leading index fell for two consecutive months. At present, the short-term growth rate of foreign trade is under pressure, and the next step of foreign trade transformation and upgrading is worthy of attention.
Favorable factors are gathering
The macro analysis team of China Merchants Securities pointed out that the trade surplus in June was 48.11 billion US dollars, basically the same as last month. It is expected that the trade surplus in the third quarter will maintain a high level due to seasonal factors, which is one of the factors conducive to the improvement of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. In addition, in the second quarter, China's exports and imports were -3.9% and -6.7%, respectively, which was significantly better than the first quarter. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the improvement in demand in emerging markets, the negative impact of the RMB exchange rate on exports, and the role of foreign direct investment will help exports continue to improve.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in the first half of the year, China's general trade import and export was 6.28 trillion yuan, down 1.2%, accounting for 56.4% of China's total import and export value during the same period, up 1.2 percentage points over the same period of last year, and the trade structure was optimized. In addition, mechanical and electrical products, traditional labor-intensive products are still the main export. In the first half of the year, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 3.66 trillion yuan, down 2.5%, accounting for 57.2% of China's total exports during the same period. Among them, medical equipment and equipment exports increased by 4.8%, battery exports increased by 2.7%, and solar battery exports increased by 7.4%. In the same period, the total export of traditional labor-intensive products was 1.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.4%, accounting for 21% of the total value of exports. Among them, exports of textiles, clothing, toys and plastic products have grown, and some traditional products still have competitive advantages.
Gai Xinzhe believes that the base effect has some interference with the import and export data, but there are still some bright spots in the details. Some details of the import and export operation are not too weak. From the point of view of exports, exports of general trade and processing trade fell by 1% and 9.9% respectively, a decrease of 0.1 and 3.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month. From the perspective of imports, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrates, copper and copper increased by 8.9% and 20.3% respectively. Although the growth rate has dropped from last month, it is still much higher than last year's level (2.2%, -0.3%).
Gai Xinzhe said that China's value chain division of labor is trying to extend to both ends of the smile curve. Domestic capital and inputs are gradually replacing some foreign factors, and the foreign trade structure will change accordingly. In the first six months of this year, the proportion of China's general trade rose to 56.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous five months, reaching a record high in the same period; private enterprise exports increased by 3.6%, significantly higher than the export growth rate of foreign enterprises (-7.8%) The trade price condition index is 105.2, indicating that the terms of trade are improving.
Abstract The General Administration of Customs released import and export data on the 13th. In the first half of this year, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 11.13 trillion yuan, down 3.3% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 6.4 trillion yuan, down 2.1%; imports were 47,300...
The General Administration of Customs released import and export data on the 13th. In the first half of this year, the total value of China's import and export of goods and trade was 11.13 trillion yuan, down 3.3% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 6.4 trillion yuan, down 2.1%; imports were 4.73 trillion yuan, down 4.7%; trade surplus was 1.67 trillion yuan, up 5.9%.