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On the one hand, "strengthen the party's leadership over economic work" (two places to start, one is to arrange work, the other is evaluation work), on the other hand, it seems to enhance the State Council's autonomy in the two major fiscal and monetary policies. To sum up a common saying we use is to strengthen the results management and weaken the process management. Speaking of this, I have a short personal opinion: Many people are very concerned about the "positive fiscal policy and sound monetary policy". If they say something bad, they basically do not make the basics. Homework - look at the historical announcement. At the end of 2007, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement “prudent fiscal policy and tight monetary policy†in the coming year. As a result, in the second year, the accelerator was stepped on the bottom, and a monetary and fiscal policy was active. At the end of 2009, the “active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy†was put forward. As a result, the brakes began to be applied after the end of the year, and the State Council was tightening throughout the first half of the year. Because there is a saying that is good, the situation is stronger than people. The Politburo Standing Committee is also a person. No one can predict the international and domestic situation in the coming year. Both monetary policy and fiscal policy are essentially the result of coping. After talking about these bits and pieces, as usual, you need to do a job that firmly grasps the nose of the cow and answer a question: On the whole, the most important economic work idea next year (please note that the wording here is not "the economic work of the State Council." "Thoughts", but the "economic work ideas" with global significance, today's deep adjustment of internal work, this sentence is worthy of all investors to appreciate) Is it? The press release is very long and there are many things mentioned: reform, innovation, agricultural production, elimination of backward production capacity, prevention and control of debt risks, coordinated regional development, improvement of people's livelihood, opening up to the outside world... Behind so many things, there must be a main line Connect them in series. What is this main line? Just one sentence: "The core of the economic work next year is to persist in striving for progress, reform and innovation." In the translation, the basic idea for next year is this: You must first maintain the economic growth rate above "stable". How much is it stable? The answer will be announced during the next two sessions. If you don't want to find out the truth, you can actually put Premier Kr.'s series of expressions on economic growth: the "lower limit" of economic growth is to stabilize growth and protect employment. The "upper limit" is Prevent inflation. What is the decision of employment? Very simple, the difference between the actual growth rate and the potential growth rate is lower than the potential growth rate. Generally, employment is problematic. What is the potential growth rate now? The more accepted figures are between 7 and 7.5%. Before the economic growth rate fell to the target range, reform and innovation were the mainstays. After the economic growth rate fell to the target range, it was mainly based on steady growth. But even if it is necessary to grow steadily, it must pursue the "speed of improvement in quality and efficiency without causing sequelae." Anyway, as in the past, when the steady growth, it did stabilize, but left a pile of debt problems and overcapacity problems. In the third quarter of this year, the economic growth rate reached 7.8%. According to the data released by the industry, the GDP in the fourth quarter can be determined to be almost 7.5%. That is to say, from now on until the economic situation drops significantly, our main tasks are two. : Reform and innovation. Careful investors must have discovered that there was no such thing as a “reform†when the conference laid out six major tasks for economic work next year. Why is this? The reason is very simple: "The Party Central Committee has decided to set up a central comprehensive deepening reform leading group, working under the leadership of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee and the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. All localities and departments must appoint an agency responsible for the reform work, and the main leading comrades must Personally grasp." The reform work is mainly carried out by the Party Central Committee, and is specifically completed by the comprehensive deepening reform leading group. It is said that the year is the first year of reform and implementation. The reforms of the Third Plenary Session cover 16 aspects, 60 major articles, and more than 300 points. It is obviously a mystery to go hand in hand, and there must be a sequence, so the central economic work conference press release The following principles will emerge: "The reforms that are clear-cut and effective, belong to the reforms that local and department can authorize operations, and can be accelerated next year and in the near future. For reforms involving a wide range of areas that require central decision-making, it is necessary to speed up research and propose reforms. After formulating specific reform strategies and comprehensively coordinating and finalizing them, we will promote them in due course next year. For reforms that are not yet deep enough but must be promoted, we must boldly explore and pilot first, find out the rules, build consensus, and expand the experience for comprehensive development. And create conditions." Simply put, the reforms that can be determined by the department and the local are immediately started. It needs to be coordinated across departments and regions, and the central government will complete it and deepen the group to promote the completion. For the reforms with excessive differences within the party, pilot first. We cannot accurately determine which level of the core nuclear reform, fiscal and tax reform, and state-owned enterprise reform belong to each other, but it can be roughly guessed: local state-owned enterprise reform belongs to the first category (in principle, the provincial state-owned enterprise reform provincial party secretary can issue guns, and the municipal state-owned enterprises The reform of the municipal party committee secretary can issue a gun. The central enterprise reform and the mixed ownership system are classified into the second category. The land reform and fiscal reform are either in the second category or in the third category. This means that before the next two sessions, the focus of capital market investment is likely to be concentrated in provincial and municipal SOE reforms, and land reforms in pilot areas may also be manifested. With such a comparison, combined with the six major tasks of economic work next year, we can basically sort out several things that will be grasped by the State Council next year. (Note: Regular such as food security and improving people's livelihood And increase openness and put it aside): The first top priority: innovation drives development (why is innovation first and not backward production capacity? Know that eliminating backward production capacity in the second statement of the six tasks Putting it in front of innovation. The reason is very simple. There are two sentences in the press release: "The fundamental way to resolve overcapacity is innovation" is a sentence, "putting reform and innovation in all aspects of economic and social development" is another sentence.) What are the contents of the innovation? A total of three items: 1. Develop strategic emerging industries and accelerate the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries. This is not a new formulation, but it is obviously not used in specific terms. From "cultivating and developing strategic emerging industries" to "developing strategic emerging industries", although there is only one word difference, the changes reflected can be described as obvious. Cultivating is to take the old road and take the old road? Take the old road of the state to pay for the innovation system. Development is to take a new road and take a new path? It is a new way of marketization. The former means that the national roll sleeves come in person, and the latter means that the country wears a tie to make a referee. 2, create an environment, so that enterprises truly become the main body of innovation. This thing is easier said than done. Why do you say that? Because it is very simple, capital is profitable. You make the enterprise a subject of innovation, and it is necessary to make people's homes innovate and profitable. Two ways, one way is to force it down. If you don't innovate, you will lose money. Everyone will naturally go to innovation. One way is to induce, you create a good exit mechanism for the whole people to innovate, you do not have to wait until the project generates cash flow, find the next home through the capital Rubik's cube, is also a way out. The first road can be achieved through rising environmental protection costs, and it is necessary to eliminate backward production capacity. The second road requires the completion of the new three boards and the registration system. 3. The government should do a good job in strengthening intellectual property protection and improving taxation policies that promote enterprise innovation. Nothing to say, skip it. 4. Strengthen incentives and make good use of talents so that inventors and innovators can reasonably share innovation gains and break the bottleneck that hinders the transformation of technological achievements. The reform of state-owned enterprises emphasizes the development of a mixed-ownership economy and encourages employees to hold shares, which is undoubtedly beneficial. To sum up, innovation and development will become the primary task promoted by the State Council next year. The parks and brokerages corresponding to the New Third Board may have a big market ! (On December 13, the Central Economic Work Conference was closed. On December 14, the State Council issued the "Decision on Issues Concerning the National SMEs' Share Transfer System", and the National Third Board National Expansion Plan was officially introduced. Is it coincidence? Obviously not! New Third Board The matter has been brewing for a long time. A month ago, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission had already ran through a series of major institutions to build momentum for the expansion of the three boards. I believe that most of the speeches of Chairman Xiao Gang’s speech have been seen. When the timing comes out, there is no doubt that the second day of the closing of the Central Economic Work Conference is an excellent opportunity. I believe that in a short period of time, we should be able to see the relevant rules of the CSRC and the national share transfer system. When we read the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on December 3, we proposed that "the New Third Board will usher in the first year of great development . The relevant investment opportunities deserve high attention, mainly including brokerages and park companies." Everyone will also be suspicious, in just ten days. The logic has been proved by facts! (Note: Although the "Decision" proposed that non-park enterprises can also be listed on the New Third Board, but I believe that all types Institutional investors looking for opportunities in time, or will give priority to the park) The second priority: to resolve the backward production capacity to resolve the backward production capacity is not a new formulation, made in 2013, iron and steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and ships. In order to break through the gap, the backward production capacity was resolved. Five days before the mid-year economic work conference, the central government held a symposium for non-party members. General Secretary Xi Jinping said: "We must vigorously promote industrial restructuring and insist on resolving overcapacity as an industrial restructuring. The focus of 2013. What is the effect of 2013? Basically, the slogan is very rare. The completion of fixed assets investment in ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry is increasing by 2.2% year-on-year, which is worse than 2012. Negative growth. So there will be such a sentence in the press release: "Unswervingly resolve the overcapacity, and implement the decision-making deployment of centralizing the overcapacity without any compromise." The focus is on the four words, obviously The central government is not satisfied with the progress of eliminating backward production capacity this year. Since the board of directors is not satisfied, The layer should naturally be added to implement. There are three points of force: Market competition and survival of the fittest: let the damn let it die, the local government does not want to save. All the rescue actions that make the surplus industry linger will be regarded as against the central Political order and security; environmental safety and hard constraints: environmental protection and safety are the means to increase costs. If the surplus industry company does not die fast enough, then push it by raising the cost; play the role of the government: if the above two market means Still not good, people can live, then the wood is the way, the government rolls the sleeves on the field. The hard rules set the task, this way, the previous ten years have played countless times, cooked very well. Count, if strictly enforced At a certain time next year (I tend to be in the second half of the year, because the market-oriented means, if it is effective on a large scale, it will be in the second half of the year. If it is not effective, the second half of the government will be on the sleeves, that is also the time period) We will observe a significant downward trend in industrial value added. But the two types of companies will benefit from the elimination of outdated production capacity , one of the five industries that break through: cement, flat glass, steel, ships and electrolytic aluminum. If the measures are put in place, we tend to think that the overall supply and demand relationship in the cement industry is the most easily reversed. Therefore, from the perspective of eliminating backward production capacity, the fundamentals of the cement industry are worthy of high expectations next year. One is the breakthrough industry: environmental protection and safety. The third top priority: guard against local debt risks. Local governments in China have always been good at creating miracles. Traditionally, their debts lasted only five years on average. what is this concept? Let us give you an example. After considering the cost of financing, local governments will borrow 300 million yuan this year, and next year will start with about 100 million. In June, July and August of this year, the Audit Bureau excluded the investigation team from going to various places to audit local government debts. It was near the end of the year, but the data was delayed. The scale of local government debt is mostly conveyed within the system, and there are many circulations outside the system, no matter which version is a low data. To avoid misleading investors, here is no more specific figures. But we can emphasize one point: the speed of this debt expansion is obviously not sustainable. Why do you say that? Because it has reached the level that the central bank can't stand it, Comrade Zhou Xiaochuan found that there is a lot of money going into the real economy, which is what the prime minister said. From any angle, it can be considered that the debt problem has been severe enough to affect the extent of money supply and the price of funds in the whole society. So, the disease of debt, cure! How to cure? Combine short-term response measures with long-term institutional development. The long-term response is simple. It is not necessary to prepare a local government balance sheet and then allow the issuance of bonds. Replace long-term government debt with short-term debts. But we all know that it takes time to prepare a balance sheet or a local government to issue bonds. Therefore, it involves a short-term response. The short-term response is very troublesome. Assuming that the total size of local government debt is 20 trillion yuan, it will take 6 trillion yuan to maintain the debt chain without collapse next year. This has not considered the funds needed for local governments to increase investment. So there is this paragraph: Strengthen the source of the norm, the local government debt into different categories into the full-caliber budget management, strict government debt procedures. Clear responsibility for implementation, provincial and municipal governments should be responsible for local government debt in the region. Strengthen education and assessment, and correct the incorrect policy orientation from the ideological perspective. 　 To sum up, there are three ways: Method 1: Integrate debt into full-caliber budget management, and seize the impulse of local government debt expansion. This mainly solves the problem of high investment impulses and prevents new ones from rising; Method 2: Adjusting assessment The way to change the GDP-only theory is to prevent the new one from rising. In the past few days, the group department adjusted the text of the local assessment, you can go and see; Method 3: Whoever the child who took away, clear responsibility, first-level management level. Provincial and municipal governments are responsible for local government debt in the region; I believe that the impact of fixed asset investment will be significantly negative next year. The total demand is worrying. The time should be in the first half of the year. There will be less workdays in the first quarter. Everyone has to go through the Spring Festival. It takes time to implement the layers, so it may be difficult to make big moves in the first quarter. Formal implementation began in the second quarter, which led to a decline in aggregate demand in the quarter, which took a while to be transmitted to the production end. The probability of a macroeconomic downturn from the end of the second quarter of the second quarter to the third quarter will gradually increase. Combined with our previous analysis of the elimination of backward production capacity, to be honest, the situation in the second half of next year is really optimistic. In the words of our annual strategy, the pains of reform in the second half of the year will appear. Of course, this is not optimistic is relative. After all, there is a bottom line for steady growth and stable employment, but only big policy decisions are generally lagging data. From worry to confirmation, it takes time, from confirmation to action, it takes time, and it takes time to take action to produce results. At this point, our annual strategy will quietly surface: at least in the first half of the year, we can also do hot investment (military, state-owned enterprise reform, new three board and land reform), in the second half of the year, we need to avoid risk, and the industry chooses to deleverage. Benefit from related industries (such as building materials), or light assets (such as medical, food and beverage). (The author of this article: Chief Strategy Analyst of Huatai Securities)
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The details of the Central Economic Work Conference revealed many unusualities. Starting from the details, through the fog, the author tried to sort out the logical main line behind the meeting. Along the main line of logic, we will explore the most important work arrangements for next year. Based on the government's work arrangements, the final rhythm of the macro economy next year will be promoted, and at this point, our annual investment strategy will quietly surface. At the end of the year, each unit needs an annual work summary, while deploying work for the coming year, and the Politburo is no exception. This has a central economic work conference. This conference is attended not only by members of the Politburo, but also by the members of the Central Military Commission and the heads of provincial and ministerial units. Including: the main responsible persons of the party and government of the provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and cities with separate plans, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, the relevant departments of the Party Central Committee, the relevant ministries and commissions of the State Council, and the heads of relevant enterprises and financial institutions, The relevant person in charge of the army and the armed police force. This is a large-scale enlarged Politburo meeting with a well-known name: Central Economic Work Conference. The task of the Central Economic Work Conference is simple: the Party Central Committee has accepted the results of the work of the State Council in the past year, and the Party Central Committee has assigned the State Council the next year's work tasks. The reason why so many people are called is to let the major leaders of various lines and provinces better implement the economic work of the coming year, and even understand it as a routine platform for the Party Central Committee to facilitate the work of the State Council. Since it is an enlarged meeting, in general, there will be a "small meeting" before this, that is, the Politburo meeting. In order to express the attitude of extensively soliciting opinions and humbly listening to opinions, a symposium for non-party members will be opened in the same period. For so many years, leaders have done this, and it has become an unwritten practice. The Politburo meeting focused on “analytical research†economic work in 2014, while the Central Economic Work Conference focused on “deploying†economic work in 2014. So, what are the places worthy of attention at this meeting? Don't say that, there are three unexpected changes that are unexpected and unexpected. First of all, the meeting was open for a full four days . Do you want to open this for a long time? Because there is a ride in the middle - the national urbanization conference. Each meeting is open for two days, and it doesn't add up to four days. As for the bus ride, I guess it is to make up the pace. At the end of last year, Prime Minister Ke Qiang told the media that urbanization is the biggest domestic demand, and the market is eagerly awaiting the urbanization conference. A year has passed, and the National Urbanization Conference has finally stopped listening to the stairs. It can be seen from this that the game involved in the urbanization is fierce. Secondly, when I read the press release, I was concerned about a change that was very subtle but not new but extremely important: Xi Jinping summarized the economic work in 2013 . It should be known that, in accordance with established practice, the annual summary of central economic work will be completed by the Prime Minister for so many years. Of course, this is no longer a new discovery. In the first quarter of 2013, the Standing Committee of the Politburo analyzed the economic situation and the symposium of the non-party outsiders at the mid-year economic work conference. We can all observe similar clues. This trend is even more pronounced after the comprehensive deepening reform leadership team is released. Finally, there is a more strange change : the presentation of the overall requirements for work in 2014 at the Politburo meeting on December 3 and the presentation of the overall requirements for work in 2014 at the Central Economic Work Conference on December 10 have changed. Rare situation! Historically, including 2012 (the first year of Xi’s presiding of the Central Economic Work Conference), both expressions are not easy. What is the general requirement of the Party Central Committee for economic work? Let us look at where the specific changes are: One of the changes, “transforming reforms in all areas of economic and social development, and promoting innovation through reforms†has been revised into “translating reforms and innovations into all aspects of economic and social developmentâ€. Don't underestimate such a small change, the significance of its changes is remarkable, it is a world of difference! We can even understand this: the focus of work next year will change from a single goal to a dual goal. Why is there such a significant change in just one week before and after? The second change, the formulation of "the means to improve the means of regulation and control" has disappeared. It must be known that in the past, for a long time, improving macroeconomic regulation and control has always been the headline of the central economic work. Anything changes the process. If there is a small tail left at the Politburo meeting on December 3, the Central Economic Work Conference on December 10 will clean up the macro-control and ask for the overall requirements. As we all know, macroeconomic regulation and control mainly includes fiscal policy and monetary policy, and it has traditionally been under the control of the State Council. The third change is the phrase “effectively improving the quality and efficiency of economic developmentâ€. In all these cases, we can make a positive understanding: after the central authority has been greatly improved, the decision-making efficiency of the Party Central Committee and the State Council in economic affairs has increased significantly. You can make an analogy. The department and the department deal with each other, especially the task. There must be written notice to be formal. Since you are official, you can't change it at will. However, if the integration between departments and departments reaches a certain level, and even has become a colleague of the same department, it is easy to say something, and it is easy to change. In all these cases, we can also make a negative understanding: the internal differences are too large, resulting in the overall requirements have to be drafted in a short period of time. As far as I am concerned, I prefer the first kind of understanding. Because the December 3 meeting is the decision-making meeting, if there are internal differences, the wording and other aspects will be very cautious, at least leave room, and should not wait until December 10 this arrangement will be adjusted. Moreover, this meeting has such a paragraph: "In his speech, Li Keqiang elaborated on the macroeconomic policy orientation next year, made specific arrangements for economic work next year, and made a concluding speech."