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For the price trend in the coming months, the current analysis agencies have basically reached a consensus that after entering the fourth quarter, the CPI increase will show a gradual decline, and the peak inflation has passed during the year.
According to the arrangement of the National Bureau of Statistics, the September CPI will be announced next Friday (14th). Since September, food prices have continued to show a slight upward trend. Although the hikes are gradually declining, analysts generally believe that the CPI growth in September is unlikely to fall significantly. It is expected to remain at a high level of more than 6%. Some institutions even predict that the September CPI may be higher than August. CITIC Securities released a research report that food, vegetables, eggs and other factors affected by seasonal factors, a large increase in the month, the month's food will rise by 1.5% to 2%; non-food, due to domestic gasoline prices did not appear in September Prices such as clothing will be affected by seasonal factors, and the chain will rebound significantly, so non-food will also increase by 0.1%. Overall, the September CPI rose by 0.6% month-on-month and 6.2% year-on-year. Industrial Bank research believes that price data will rebound, and it is expected that the CPI growth in September will exceed 6.3% in August. At the same time, it is expected that the CPI will be adjusted again in October, and in November it will see a significant drop below 6%. However, the CPI for 2011 will still reach around 5.5%. CICC also believes that although the hikes in September continued to fall compared with August, the growth rate dropped by about 0.6 percentage points. However, due to the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, there was a large seasonal increase in food and non-food prices in September. pressure. The CPI growth rate is expected to remain at a high level of 6.2% to 6.4% in September. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, believes that the price of edible agricultural products has been running smoothly since September, and the initial CPI growth in September is about 6.0%. He also believes that the CPI year-on-year growth rate will continue to fall in September after falling back in August, indicating that the CPI turning point has been formed in the third quarter, and the CPI in the fourth quarter will show a further decline.