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According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2015, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year at comparable prices, which was lower than the growth rate of 7% of GDP. Wang Bohua, secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that in the first half of 2015, China's photovoltaic industry continued to show a good development trend. Under the guidance of the policy and the market, the shipments of enterprises showed an upward trend year-on-year, and the profitability was greatly improved.
The photovoltaic industry is showing a good development trend
The reporter was informed that in the first half of 2015, polysilicon production was about 74,000 tons, up 15.6% year-on-year; silicon wafers and cell wafer production were 4.5 billion pieces and 18.2 GW, respectively; component production was about 19.6 GW, up 26.4% year-on-year; The installed capacity of new PV installations is about 7-8 GW, of which the ground power station is about 6.5 GW.
"Photovoltaic investment enthusiasm has shifted from the manufacturing process in the early years to the photovoltaic application. In addition to financial institutions, many traditional enterprises have also entered the field of photovoltaic investment." Wang Bohua said. According to incomplete statistics, in the first half of 2015, among the PV concept stocks of A-share listed companies, the amount of funds raised for photovoltaic power plants reached 26 billion yuan, and the scale of power plants reached 3 GW.
At the same time, PV applications are diversified and integrated, such as photovoltaic and poverty alleviation, agriculture, environment and climate.
In addition, the reporter learned that in the first half of 2015, although China's photovoltaic industry still suffered from the "double opposition" in Europe and the United States, from another perspective, "double opposition" has also accelerated the pace of China's photovoltaic enterprises going out. According to incomplete statistics, as of the first half of 2015, China's overseas battery and module production capacity has reached 800 MW and 1.5 GW, respectively, and the capacity under construction and expansion has reached 3.2 GW and 3 GW respectively; at the same time, China Major PV companies are also actively expanding domestic component capacity. According to EnergyTrend, in 2015, a number of Chinese companies have announced expansion plans, which will add 4.2 GW of component capacity, of which 1 GW will be added to overseas capacity.
In addition to accelerating the go-out, the emerging markets in emerging countries have also brought opportunities for China's photovoltaic industry. Although Europe was once China's largest export market, due to its slowdown in market growth and its “limit price limit†measures for China's PV products exports, China's PV products have declined in exports to Europe. From January to May 2015, China's PV module exports to Europe were about 1.11 billion US dollars, accounting for 21% of total exports. However, emerging markets have gradually emerged. In 2014-2015, in addition to the larger export markets such as Japan and the United States, demand for photovoltaic markets such as Australia, India, the Philippines, Chile and Honduras has increased.
Still facing three major problems in development
Despite the good development in the first half of the year, the photovoltaic industry still faces outstanding problems.
From the perspective of photovoltaic manufacturing, due to the high financial cost of the company, although the capacity utilization rate has rebounded to a reasonable level compared with last year, the gross profit margin has increased, but the net interest rate is still below 3%, and the profitability of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry is still weak.
At the same time, the capacity utilization rate of the photovoltaic industry is different. In the procurement, downstream developers are generally skeptical about the long-term survival of small component companies and fulfilling their warranty on components, and instead favor large brands with brands. In order to meet the order requirements in 2014, most large companies have increased the effective capacity of existing equipment through technological transformation, or increased the number of shipments by looking for third-party OEMs. With the expansion of the company's own production capacity, this third-party OEM method will be difficult to continue to exist on a large scale, and some small and medium-sized enterprises will be less optimistic due to lack of orders and technical level.
From the perspective of the development of the environment, China's photovoltaic industry still faces three major problems.
The first is trade barriers. The "double-reverse" investigations against Europe and the United States have intensified. The successive "double-reverse" investigations by major exporting countries in the first half of the year have brought heavy losses to domestic PV companies, which directly led to a decline in China's PV exports and the impact of PV trade. In this regard, Wang Bohua suggested that in addition to building factories overseas, enterprises should strengthen their own technology research and development, strive to reduce production costs, and carry out more efficient and scientific international expansion.
The second is subsidy arrears. According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association on 15 PV power plant operators, the total amount of PV subsidy arrears has exceeded 10 billion yuan. The analysis believes that the primary reason for subsidy arrears is that it is difficult to achieve renewable energy subsidies at this stage. In 2014, the subsidy receivable was about 70 billion yuan, and actually paid about 40 billion yuan. The gap is large; in addition, renewable energy subsidies The issuance process is more complicated, and it may take more than one and a half years for the company to receive the subsidy. Due to the government's long-term arrears of subsidies for power generation enterprises, the government's credit has been seriously affected, resulting in poor capital flow and increased financial costs for power generation companies. The industry chain has a triangular debt phenomenon among power generation companies, equipment companies and parts companies.
In addition, the land tax issue is becoming a new contradiction restricting the development of China's photovoltaic industry. At present, some local governments levy a levy on photovoltaic land tax, resulting in excessive taxation of power station development enterprises, and it is difficult to guarantee the revenue of power stations. At the same time, the land taxation standards for photovoltaic power station land use vary greatly, resulting in serious unfairness. At present, the land use tax for all localities is 0.6-12 yuan / square meter, and the land use tax for photovoltaic power plants in different regions is nearly 20 times different. Wang Bohua said that the land tax of photovoltaic power stations cannot be levied, and it is best to exempt them. It is necessary to refer to the state's relevant policies on conventional thermal power generation as soon as possible, and exempt land use tax from photovoltaic power station land, fully reflecting the state's encouragement for renewable energy power generation.
Demand for photovoltaic market is strong in the second half of the year
The reporter was informed that the National Energy Administration will promote the preparation of the "13th Five-Year Plan" in the second half of the year. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the annual installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach 20-30 million kilowatts. In addition, the National Energy Administration will continue to promote the increase of subsidies and promote upstream and downstream linkages to promote industrial upgrading.
According to forecasts, the domestic and international PV market demand will be strong in the second half of the year. The global PV market will maintain rapid growth with a growth rate of over 20%. The growth momentum will mainly come from large-scale markets such as China, Japan and the United States, as well as the United Kingdom, India and Emerging markets such as Chile. The National Energy Administration's 2015 PV construction scale is 17.8 GW, plus the leader's plan indicators, the total installed capacity this year is expected to be more than 20 GW. According to the latest statistics from the Energy Bureau, the domestic grid-connected PV capacity in the first half of the year is between 7-8 GW, so the installed capacity in the second half will be 12-13 GW, which is more than the PV grid connection last year.
Due to the large increase in the demand for photovoltaics in China, the expansion of production is relatively rational, and the growth rate of demand is higher than the growth rate of supply. It is expected that the price of PV modules may rise slightly in the fourth quarter, and the profit margin of manufacturing enterprises may increase slightly. Among them, backbone enterprises will further increase their market share by virtue of technological scale and brand advantages. Some small enterprises' living space will be further squeezed, enterprise mergers and acquisitions will accelerate, and industrial concentration will continue to increase. With the technological advancement of enterprises and breakthroughs in new technologies, production costs still have room to fall.
The most noteworthy thing is that, driven by the internal and external environment, the technology upgrade of photovoltaic enterprises in the second half will be the key word. From the perspective of the internal environment, the “Photovoltaic Runner Program†is conducive to further raising awareness of the technological advantages of relevant companies and will promote technology upgrades across the industry. In the second half of this year, a number of photovoltaic “top runners†demonstration bases will be approved. "Regular Conditions for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry (2015)" set technical thresholds for existing and new projects, encourage technology upgrades, and eliminate backward technologies; external environment, affected by the "double opposition" of the EU and the US, facing Europe and the United States To strengthen the reality of manufacturing, we must strengthen our own technology research and development and innovation capabilities, and strive to reduce production costs in order to have a stronger competitive edge to open up overseas markets.
In addition, due to the "double opposition", the export situation of China's PV companies in the second half of the year is not optimistic. The “going out†of PV companies will become the new normal. In the second half of the year, we will speed up the avoidance of trade risks through overseas factories and implement industrial global layout plans. In order to open up the foreign PV market, some enterprises in China have already built a number of photovoltaic power station projects overseas. In the second half of the year, emerging markets such as India and Chile will become the key targets of domestic enterprises.
At the same time, the reporter also learned that with the continuous improvement of the industrial environment, the quality of power stations is expected to improve in the second half of the year. China will increase the inspection of the quality of photovoltaic power generation projects, and the testing standards will be further improved. In the future, more financial capital such as banks and insurance will enter the photovoltaic field, and more stakeholders will pay attention to and supervise the quality of power stations. More and more photovoltaic manufacturing companies will set up quality inspection centers and attach great importance to the quality of power station projects.
Abstract According to the macro industrial economic research, the domestic industrial economy faced a large downward pressure in the first half of 2015, but the photovoltaic industry continued to grow against the trend. Peng Xiaobing, deputy director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, was on July 22 by China Light. ...
"According to the macro industrial economy, the domestic industrial economy faced a large downward pressure in the first half of 2015, but the photovoltaic industry continued to grow against the trend." Peng Hongbing, deputy director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, was on the Chinese PV industry on July 22. The seminar “The Development of the Photovoltaic Industry in the First Half of 2015 and the Outlook for the Second Half of the Year 2015†hosted by the Association said.